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[Message Centre] :: [RPG Centre] :: [Question Centre] :: [White Scenarios] Archives » Prospecting update
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Year 11 Day 165 21:39 Prospecting update
Arch Terkan

Have the prospecting rules been changed within the past 2 years to allow prospecting on the same tile repeatedly?
It used to be (maybe still is) that if you scanned you werent allowed to do it again. You had to change the equation somehow. Use 1 less vehicle or get someone else with a different CompOps skill.

Has that changed? It makes zero realistic sense for that to be the case. Why would it be physically impossible to detect a deposit with fewer sensors but not with the same amount as half a day ago?

Either way the current rules dont reflect any of this
--Arch, out.


Year 11 Day 165 23:09 Prospecting update
Teyacapan Quetzalxochitl

You were always allowed to do so again, it just doesn't yield any result.


Year 11 Day 166 0:24 Prospecting update
Ellias Aubec

Indeed, you could always prospect as many times as you wanted. The chance of a deposit is fixed, its not decided each time you prospect. What they would of meant is that if you prospected with FKs and you didn't find anything, you could try going over with more (if you didn't use a full squad), do it with a higher comp ops guy, or try with more sensors (ie groundhogs).

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Year 11 Day 166 3:30 Prospecting update
Borr Fedick

Arch as has been said above increasing the amount of sensors and the comp ops skill of the prospector may increase your chance of finding a deposit.

I take this to mean that each tile has a predetermined yes/no flag either a tile has a deposit or doesn't, so if you use a comp ops 5 with 12 hogs and don't find a deposit there's no point in re-prospecting as you never will find one.......BUT:

“Each time you extract Y tons of material from a mine, its size is diminished by Y. When the size reaches 0, the mine is empty (see below Mining: Moving On (Mine Depletion) for effects). However each week there is a chance of discovering a new pocket of material at the deposit, the chance is calculated below:

- Mining Rules Page
 ”


The above seems to say that once a tile you found a deposit on has been exhausted it will have a re-roll of the yes/no deposit flag each and every week so these tiles you can keep prospecting until you find another deposit.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

Edited By: Borr Fedick on Year 11 Day 166 3:37
____________

Eidolon QuarterMaster of the planet Nal Koska



Year 11 Day 166 3:40 Prospecting update
Teyacapan Quetzalxochitl

Each week of RM extraction there is a chance. Not each week of prospecting a depleted terrain.


Year 11 Day 166 13:13 Prospecting update
Kuro Neko

“ The chance of a deposit is fixed, its not decided each time you prospect.

- Ellias
 ”


What's always been unclear to me is that if you prospect and fail to find a deposit, does that mean if you try again (with exactly the same sensors and skills) you get another chance of finding a deposit (with the same chance as previously, i.e. the chance of a deposit is fixed)?

Or are you forever blocked off from a success (if using the same sensors and skills? i.e. the chance is not fixed, and becomes 0% for a re-prospect.)

The former seems more simple and easier to code. The latter is more complicated and requires the database to record all failed prospect attempts.

For example, if I tried for a hole-in-one on the first tee of a golf course, and failed, would I never be able to hit a hole-in-one on that tee if I never improved my skills or never got a better set of club (because the hole was physically blocked off, i.e. 0% chance)?

Or if I tried again, with the same skills and same set of club, would I still have a (small) chance of hitting a hole-in-one (i.e. chance of a hole-in-one is fixed)?

Edited By: Kuro Neko on Year 11 Day 166 13:14
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There is no god but Ara... All will walk his path...

Year 11 Day 166 13:58 Prospecting update
Teyacapan Quetzalxochitl

The easiest way to explain this is with a visual aid:



Your height represents your combined sensors and computer operations skill, the threshold on the bar represents the amount of sensors/skill needed to find a deposit.

Try as you might, you're -not- going to get in if you don't grow or wear platform shoes.


Year 11 Day 166 14:59 Prospecting update
Kuro Neko

Thanks. That visual aid is really useful and explains the concept. I got confused (so my previous post is mostly rubbish) because the Rules say:

Chance of finding = ( 1 + Total Sensors^(Comp Op/30+0.05) ) * Terrain Prob

... which made me think there was always a small chance of finding something, no matter how poor the skills and equipment.

I guess a better wording would be 'Threshold for finding' ?

Edited By: Kuro Neko on Year 11 Day 166 15:00
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There is no god but Ara... All will walk his path...

Year 11 Day 166 15:28 Prospecting update
Gravnkev Forestwanderer

Even the most incompetent gold-panner can get lucky.

That said, there is always the slightest possibility that that someone with zero skills and one FK could find a deposit.

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Year 11 Day 168 22:55 Prospecting update
Smaul Numsey

So if you search with lets say improved equipment but same compops, your chances of finding something are:

(chance of finding with new equipment) - (chance of finding with old equipment)

or

does it reset when you scan with improved equipment?

Because I'm fairly certain I've found deposits in a square which had already been prospected by someone with the same compops and same equipment as me.

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Year 11 Day 168 23:44 Prospecting update
Ellias Aubec

Nope, every single terrain tile has a set chance of what material it is and what size. It then has a set value that you must beat with your comp ops and sensors in the equation. If you beat it, you see the deposit, otherwise nada. Once a mine collapses and the terrain changes then a new deposit will be worked out with a new value to beat.

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Year 11 Day 168 23:58 Prospecting update
Smaul Numsey

BUT, you say there's a set chance, you are suggesting every square has RM.

some of it out of reach with compops 5 and max sensors perhaps? So might as well not have any?

Anyway, that's cleared a lot of stuff up for me, thanks!

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Year 11 Day 169 2:01 Prospecting update
Ellias Aubec

No. Whether a terrain grid has a deposit is randomly chosen. Then if there is a deposit there it calculates a threshold level needed to find it.

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Year 11 Day 169 16:00 Prospecting update
Tiali Bixa-Loca

So you have to decide whether to take the 'fail to find' message at face value and move on, or tough it out and hope your gut telling you there is something there pays off?


Year 11 Day 169 16:03 Prospecting update
Jevon Lambright

IF you fail to find anything, then you lack either skill or sensor power needed. There is no reason to scan twice unless you increase one or both of those values.

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Year 11 Day 169 16:09 Prospecting update
Tiali Bixa-Loca

Ah suppose what ah'm getting at, is a fail doesn't necessarily mean there is nothing there (unless you have a skill of 5 and a full contingient of mining equipment)


Year 11 Day 169 17:50 Prospecting update
Ellias Aubec

Indeed. Its also likely that the other 'empty' terrains do have a deposit but are inaccessible with the number of sensors available in the game. I don't know exactly about that, but if that is the case then come R&D, getting even more sensors put onto a vehicle etc may allow you to access more deposits. But I wouldn't hold out hope for that, depending on how its setup.

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Year 11 Day 169 18:59 Prospecting update
Tiali Bixa-Loca

Or maybe, if the '3rd layer' gets introduced, allow underground or even opencast mining operations (start out exploring for materials, when the mine runs dry or is empty to start with, the hole has already been started to build a sub-city)


Year 11 Day 169 22:33 Prospecting update
Umbeck Traxer

I wouldn't count on a 3rd layer. But the idea of R&D'd extra sensors.... hmmm indeed..... *maniacally twirls his upper lip skin*


Year 11 Day 171 16:27 Prospecting update
Ohrr Grek

I've been redirected to this thread and it's probably a good place to post my ... experiences with prospecting.

First, though, let's see if I got all this correctly.


Considering a given planet square. Let's say it's a Cave.

1. At some point prior to prospecting (probably during creation, but it hardly matters) it is determined whether this square has a deposit. This is done using the "Terrain Probability" given in the rules. Since it's 10% for caves, about 10% of all caves do have a deposit in this game.

1b. The type of deposit is determined by the method explained under Economy - Mining - 7/ Determining Type of Deposit.

1c. Taking Ellias' statement
“The chance of a deposit is fixed, its not decided each time you prospect. ”
and Tey's neat height bar example, I figure that there is also a fixed predetermined chance of finding this deposit. (Where "chance" is the wrong word really, it's more like a "(prospecting) threshold".)
As this is in no way indicated in the rules, how is this threshold determined?


[Side note: Interesting implication of the above.
* Fixed amount of squares in the game, with fixed predetermined deposits
=> fixed amount of deposits in the game.
* A deposit will run out eventually and might be replaced by a new one or NOT
=> amount of deposits in the game will diminish over time.
* Unless new deposits are "spawned" by admins, the Combine will eventually run out of mats at some point.
=> Really?]


2. Now, getting to Prospecting.
According to the rules section the chance of finding a deposit is

Chance of finding = ( 1 + Total Sensors(Comp Op/30+0.05) ) * Terrain Prob.

If I got it all correct, when you prospect this value is compared to the predetermined "prospecting threshold" and if it's higher, you have found the deposit. If it's lower you didn't and no subsequent attempt can turn it up, unless you increase skill or sensors, thereby increasing the "chance of finding". (Again it seems that "chance" should be renamed to something like "(prospecting) strength", since it's not a chance/probability.)


Now, is this correct? If so, the rules should be reworded since they give the entirely wrong impression how prospecting works. This would be due to the order and structure (for instance, "7/ determining type of deposit" right between "6/ finding a deposit" and "8/ building a mine", clearly indicating a direct linear connection to the reader that's just not there.), as well as the wording and omitting of certain facts (like the existence of a "(prospecting) threshold").



Additionally, and finally, I have two observations of my own to state which would be perfectly in line with the rules as written in the mining section, but not with the rules as stated in this thread. So, there probably is either a bug or a misunderstanding.

1. Here is an excerpt of my personal general events.
“ 164 Year 11 Day 157, 9:31 You gained 150 XP with the following message : You have discovered a deposit of quantum.
165 Year 11 Day 157, 9:31 You have found quantum on planet xxx at (3, 0) of size 59,670 Units.
166 Year 11 Day 156, 23:14 You have started prospecting on planet xxx at (3, 0).
167 Year 11 Day 156, 22:31 You gained 50 XP with the following message : You Completed Prospect Survey Of Area. Nothing Found
168 Year 11 Day 156, 22:31 You have completed scans on planet xxx at (3, 0). You found No Deposits.
169 Year 11 Day 156, 12:21 You have started prospecting on planet xxx at (3, 0). ”

You will notice that I found no deposit on a prospecting run, but did find a deposit running the exact same scan again. Yes, I didn't level, don't have more skill points and still just a single FK-7. All was exactly as the first time, I didn't even move. I didn't realize it at the time, but according to previous statements in this thread, this must be a bug. (Confirmation?)
However, according to how the rules are actually written and taking the "chance of finding a deposit" as a real chance, it could indeed happen to not hit a 23.8% chance on a scan, but do hit it on a subsequent attempt.



2. I found 17 deposits on 19 squares on my planet, with a single (1!) FK-7 and a CompOps skills of 2.
If the above statements of having predetermined deposits on all squares is true, and the "Terrain probability" averages roughly 10% on my planet. The chance of having 17 deposits on 19 squares at a 10% chance is really low. [edit: removed faulty calculation, will update tomorrow].
Additionally, all deposits would have to have a "prospecting threshold" of below 23.8 (CompOp: 2, Sensors: 10), making it even less probable.
I'm aware of the Law of Large Numbers and the fact that just because it's improbable doesn't mean it's bugged, but this is a really low chance and seeing that there might already be a bug it might be worth looking into.


Phew, lots of stuff. Last, but not least, I'm not complaining or trying to hit on the people writing the rules. If anything sounds like that, I apologize.
I'm just trying to figure out how stuff works and to help to improve the game in what little way I can (and if it's just the rules section :D ).


edit: removed faulty probability calculation

Edited By: Ohrr Grek on Year 11 Day 171 16:44

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