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19

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353

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12:23:39

Guest
Year 13 Day 285 21:05
Piron Sunrise

So for a human, the rules say the chance to be a FS at level 1, 6, 11, 16, ... are 5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, ... respectively.

Suppose I never get a force test, then the probability of not to be a FS
at level 6 is (100% - 5%) * (100% - 7.5%) = 87.9%
at level 11 is (100% - 5%) * (100% - 7.5%) * (100% - 10%) = 79%
at level 16 is (100% - 5%) * (100% - 7.5%) * (100% - 10%) * (100% - 12.5%)= 69%

or in other words

if I never get a force test, my probability to be a FS
at level 6 is 12.1%
at level 11 is 21%
at level 16 is 31%

is my logic correct?

Edited By: Piron Sunrise on Year 13 Day 285 22:51
Year 13 Day 285 21:07
Well, okay, you're essentially correct, depending on your frame of reference.

The server runs the roll, regardless of whether or not you are tested. If you are tested at level 11, and you come up positive, you don't know which of the previous tests you passed, and of course it isn't recalculated if a previous roll (that you didn't reveal by testing) is already calculated positive by the server.

Edited By: Syn on Year 13 Day 285 21:25
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Year 13 Day 285 21:31
Selatos

In some sense this is true. Initially I wanted to call hogwash, but then I rethought the problem for a moment, and, as I mentioned on IRC, both sets of probability are true, depending on your frame of reference.

Some of you might think "damn, I shouldn't get tested until level 25 to increase my odds," but that doesn't really change things. What happens is that at level 1, a roll is made. From this roll, 5% of players will become FS. Next, at level 6, another roll is made for those who remain. From that roll, 7.5% of players will become FS. In total, however, we find that 12.1% of players are FS at level 6. If you wait longer to become tested, then there is a larger percentage of the population for you to belong to, which makes your apparent probability increase.

If you are tested, then you don't change your actual, underlying chances, because you still have the same odds at each die roll, you merely are examining the results one die at a time, rather than looking at all of them at once. All that happens is that you assign yourself to a pool, either you are FS or you are not. This is known as conditional probability (i.e. you are looking at the probability of becoming FS at level 6 given that you were not FS at level 1).

Edited By: Selatos on Year 13 Day 285 21:32
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"On two occasions I have been asked,—"Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?" I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question."
- Charles Babbage
Year 13 Day 285 21:46
Piron Sunrise

Thank you both, now I fully understand the FS mechanics.

Year 13 Day 285 22:53
Piron Sunrise

Hmm changed the topic as the old one was inappropriate.