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20

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21

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05:43:27

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Archives » What is the total probability of being force sensitive at level 16?
Year 19 Day 75 18:56
I am a human, so at level 1 I have a 5% chance. At level 6, I have a 7.5%, at level 11 I have a 10% chance and at level 16 I have a 12.5% chance. What is the total probability of getting force sensitivity by level 17? Would I just add those up? for a total chance of 35% chance?

Year 19 Day 75 20:29
Kyran Caelius

No.

Level X = Race Force Probability + ((X - 1) / 5) * (Race Force Probability / 2)

Replace X with your level, and it'll tell you your Force probability for being Force sensitive at any level. It's important to note that your chance is only recalculated at 5 level intervals (1, 6, 11, 16, 21, 26, etc).

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Year 19 Day 75 20:52
Yes I know, but i'm really bad at math.

at level 1 you have a 5% chance, at level 6 you have a 7.5% chance. But that's two reroll chances. at level 11 you have 10% chance at level 16, you have 12.5% chance. So at level 17, you'd have 4 reroll tries at different percentages yes? So what would be the total probability that out of those four rolls, at the four different percentages you'd actually get sensitive?

Year 19 Day 76 1:31
as i understand it correct, if you are lvl 16-20 you have only 1 reroll with 12.5% chance

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"Tell me, where is the strength? Do you think it's in credits,
no, strength is in truth. Who has the truth, that one is stronger." Danila Bagrov
Year 19 Day 76 1:56
I know what he means and was pondering about this specific question also. Its the total chance calculation for all rerolls combined but taken separately and consecutive. We had this in school but I (of course) forgot how it is done.

Any math experts out there?

Year 19 Day 76 2:08
Jic Uiji

Honest Jic's math class is now on. To solve this problem you can solve the much simpler problem of the probability of not being FS. Basically subtract most things from one, multiply them together and subtract from 1 again. In this case, 1-(1-.05)*(1-.075)*(1-.1)*(1-.125).

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merry christmas
Year 19 Day 76 6:34
Kyran Caelius

I think I understand what you're getting at.

The Force rolls are all independent events, so you're wondering what the total probability is for those independent events to occur. What is the probability that C happens if A or B did not happen, etc. I did some Googling on calculating independent events, but I'm not sure which formulas you'd use and I don't want to guess. Rik is right that having a math person would be helpful. Jic's answer may be correct? I'm really not sure.

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Year 19 Day 76 7:05
Compound independent events you multiply. Jic's right. Also right that it's easier to conceptualize the problem as 1 - (the probability of not being FS by any given level).

Probability of A = 1 - Probability of NOT A
So in this case Probability of NOT FS is easier to calculate at 1 - 0.05 at lvl 1. (5% = 0.05)

So for those with 5% FS chance base, at level 16, You have a 69.20% chance of not being FS, so therefore your chance of being FS by level 16 is 30.80%.

% Chance to be FS by Level and Race FS Chance

Edited By: Kay Dallben on Year 19 Day 76 7:06
Year 19 Day 76 15:49
30.80% seems like rather high figure for the chance percentage of being FS.

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Benedicta Per Gratiam Jou

--> Lvl 5 FI Operator - Free Service <--

Year 19 Day 76 17:02
Yeah, if you think of it incorrectly in terms of a single roll.

At lvl 16 it is still just 12.5% chance on that roll, but the chance of Any one of those 4 rolls at levels 1,6,11,16 coming up FS Positive is what 30% is. So if you're a lvl 1 human, you have about a 30% chance of being FS by level 16. If you're a lvl 16 non-fs human about to get tested again, you still only have a 12.5% chance to be FS.

Other example: say you are a human at level 16 who has never before been tested. Your chance Ian actually the 30%, because on this test at lvl 16, if Any of the server rolls at 1,6,11,16 were successful, you will be FS.

Edited By: Kay Dallben on Year 19 Day 76 17:04
Year 19 Day 77 3:47
Beautiful table, thank you!